Prices from other regions of the ancient world, which are unfortunately not as well preserved as those found in papyrological archives, can nevertheless be compared to Egyptian prices in order to speculate about broader movements in prices. Scholars, therefore, tend to be careful when using highly regionalized, product-specific datasets to draw generalized conclusions about economic trends across wider geographic and economic contexts. Alternatively, shortages or gluts in the supplies of specific goods, whatever their causes, can lead to rapid changes in prices that may subsequently even out over time. 7 Changes in the nominal values and exchange rates of currencies, for example, are likely to permanently alter all prices measured in monetary units. It is difficult for scholars to say, however, whether prices rose due to changes in monetary standards, low grain production, state interventions in the grain market, drought, local violence, demographic changes due to the Antonine plague, or some complex mixture of these or other factors. Wheat prices appear to double, for example, in Roman Egypt in the mid- to late 2nd century ce. 6 While this index helps economic historians identify periods of price inflation, the exact cause(s) of specific inflationary episodes continue to generate debate. The index of (mostly Egyptian) ancient wheat prices, for example, is consulted regularly in studies of ancient prices and price inflation because of its relatively comprehensive coverage decade to decade, if not year to year in some periods. 5 Such indices allow scholars to simplify their investigations through the use of standardized units of value and comparisons between similar goods or categories of goods. 4 Tracking price inflation, however, requires scholars to convert price data into price indices-sets of regionalized prices restricted to particular classes of goods across defined periods of time. Price databases, such as the collection compiled by Walter Scheidel, of prices from Roman literary sources, help scholars identify and date changes in price levels. Historians typically look to monetary reforms, product shortages, plagues, wars, and even ecological changes when identifying and explaining inflation in the ancient world. 3 The causes behind ancient price movements, whether over the short or long term, are difficult to pinpoint.
2 Surviving prices from Ptolemaic Egypt also indicate periods of punctuated inflation. Perhaps the most well known of these inflationary episodes occurred in the mid- to late 3rd century ce, when prices across a range of commodities suddenly and permanently surged by roughly tenfold. 1 As a consequence, deviations from the norm-selected periods during which prices seem to have risen rapidly and systemically-contrast sharply with the prevailing price stability in the Greco-Roman world and, therefore, attract the attention of scholars. Over the long term and on aggregate, however, inflation was low.
In classical antiquity, the prices of various commodities-especially agricultural products-could and did change from season to season or from year to year. Scholars, therefore, often use theoretical models and proxy evidence to better understand the nuances and complexity of inflation in classical antiquity. In many areas and periods, however, inflation is poorly understood because sufficient numbers of prices do not survive. Some regions, such as Egypt, offer hundreds of prices, which facilitate quantitative measurements of inflation. The ancient world witnessed periods of both slow and steady inflation as well as punctuated surges in prices. The magnitude of price rises and the duration during which prices stay elevated also have a bearing on how inflation is studied. Inflation can occur in the prices of individual goods, the goods and services associated with a particular industry or sector of an economy, or as a macro-phenomenon in which all or most prices in an economy rise. In both ancient and modern societies, inflation is sometimes difficult to identify, measure, and explain with precision. « ⇄ » /6 for P pabulari to forage pabulum Peleus myth.Inflation typically refers to rising prices.
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